There is a constitutional and legal crisis about to break in the US any day now, and one of several stories breaking yesterday will appear in future history books as a pivotal moment that changed America forever. We just don't know yet which one it will be.
Manoeuvres are underway by Donald Trump and his
political and media allies to systematically dismantle the norms of US
politics. It's very likely that the US political landscape will look
dramatically different in one of two ways in coming weeks or months - either
Special Investigator Robert Mueller will begin legal proceedings against the
President of the United States for colluding with Russia to rig the
Presidential election, or Donald Trump and congress will succeed in removing
Mueller from the investigation, along with any trace of checks and balances
preventing the US from becoming a de facto dictatorship. Neither of these
outcomes can do anything other than hugely harm the UK/US "special
relationship" and any prospects of future successful trade or even
security cooperation between the US and a post-Brexit UK.
Thanks to Brexit, UK politics has been utterly chaotic for
the last 18 months, but at least with Brexit there are two opposing views and
some on either side of the argument genuinely believe that their way is better
for the country as a whole. In US politics right now it’s simply the Good Guys
versus the Bad Guys, and the Bad Guys couldn't make themselves more obvious if
they wore armbands with skulls on them. Those who are supporting Trump have a
tiger by the tail, and daren't let go for the same reason that "having a
tiger by the tale" is a well-worn metaphor.
Evidence is mounting daily that Trump is, if not
actually in the pocket of Putin, certainly trying on his suits.
The White House announced yesterday they aren't going to
implement sanctions against Russia despite a near-unanimous vote in Congress
ordering them - in August. They claim the sanctions are “being
effective without being implemented”. There was also a requirement that the
names of those with close ties to Putin be released by today, 30th
January. The Treasury Department complied with this requirement and released a
list of prominent Russians with ties to Putin at 11.45pm last night. Russia has
expressed it's "outrage" at the release of this list despite their
man in the White House saying no action would be taken.
Examples of how Russian sanctions are currently being effective include: -
- Illinois Congressman Mike Quigley stated that the Russians successfully hacked into different Boards of Elections across America, and that the Russians may have successfully changed the presidential vote tally in multiple states from Hillary to Trump.
The Trump assault on checks and balances to his power is ramping up hugely, culminating yesterday in the early retirement of FBI deputy director
Andrew McCabe, following huge pressure and insults from Trump, Republicans in Congress and the media.
The personal attacks from Trump include, incredibly, taking McCabe to
task for allowing ex-FBI head James Comey to fly back from a meeting in an
official plane after he'd been fired by Trump, finishing his tirade by saying
to him "Go and ask your wife what it's like to be a loser". Astounding
nastiness that you can’t imagine from any previous President.
(Although be honest if I was approaching retirement &
had holidays to take I'd damn well take them to get out from under Trump as
soon as possible. Plus this frees him to speak to Mueller without constraints
of office - I'm sure he has plenty to contribute.)
Also yesterday, the House Intelligence Committee voted on
strictly party lines to release
a controversial memo produced by one of their own members, Devin Nunes,
suggesting inappropriate FBI surveillance on Trump during the 2016 campaign,
while simultaneously voting to suppress a counter memo produced by Democrats rebutting
the Nunes suggestions. At the same time the Intelligence Committee announced
that they are officially investigating the FBI and the Department of Justice
(who, of course, are in the process of investigating many of them).
There is a vicious information circle in right-wing US
politics - GOP in Congress raise spurious accusations attacking any person or
institution they perceive as a threat, Fox News reports them as facts, Trump
tweets about the Fox News report from his bed, GOP in congress & Fox report
that there is clearly substance behind the original accusations because the
President backs it up, and so it goes round.
All of this effort in Congress by those who protect Trump has
one focal point - to amass evidence/sentiment that the Mueller investigation is tainted
and that the FBI and DoJ have an agenda against Trump. This will lead
ultimately to an attempt by Trump to fire the Special Counsel and scrap the
investigation.
The Trump supporting pack are hanging around with the
playground bully for the usual reasons kids do that - because they get some of
the sweets he takes from the other kids, they get enjoyment and empowerment
from watching him beat others up - and most importantly they know how viciously
he turns on those who stand up to him. If Mueller impeaches Trump, watch those
kids melt away & swear they were trying to restrain his bullying ways all
along. If Trump removes Mueller, a constitutional crisis is imminent.
It's very true that right now in UK politics it's hard to
predict events of coming months, let alone distant outcomes. But American
politics is in such a mess it's impossible to predict the present (or indeed the President).
Mike Holden
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