Some commentators are saying the deal* signed today with the
EU about sufficient progress should be viewed as a victory for Leavers. In fact I think
it’s the opposite.
(*It's not a deal in the usual sense, it's merely a series of
commitments the UK has made in return for the EU saying we can move on to next
stage talks. The EU agreed to nothing concrete except to allow the next stage
to happen. But anyway…)
David Davis produced this hilarious tweet early this morning:
-
"Been a lot of work". First time for everything, eh Dave?
The red lines which Boris banged the desk about, as recently
as yesterday and, incredibly, again today – money, borders, laws, control - all
of these red lines have faded not to pink as Jacob Rees-Mogg suggests, but have
vanished like the spray foam lines after a free-kick.
We are committing to paying the full EU budget payments up
to at least the end of 2020 – current spending, future spending and ongoing commitments.
This will outstrip the £50bn previously headlined, but will be spread over time –
as it always would have been. The Brexter insistence on focussing on a lump sum
figure has done them immense harm, to no practical end.
We've committed to no Hard Border in Northern Ireland and to
maintain the Good Friday agreement, while “in the absence of agreed solutions”
(so if the EU doesn’t agree with our solution - that), we’re maintaining full alignment
with the EU - they've removed a crucial word "regulatory" from the
text. Not only will this have reporters breathing a sigh of relief because
"regulatory alignment" is a right mouthful, but it also means this
will be broader than just regulation of goods & services. And crucially,
the wording also states “no regulatory barriers develop between Northern
Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom” (we have the DUP tail to thank for
that clause, wagging the Government dog). The UK will de facto stay in the Single
Market and Customs Union with all the associated regulations, oversight, costs (and
benefits) while saying we’re leaving.
The difference in the reaction to this news comes down to the difference in philosophy between Leavers and Remainers – Remainers are, I think, more pragmatic. Though we see Brexitr as a massively damaging & expensive ego trip and would
like it stopped, we are where we are, so retaining as much access & benefit
as we can is the important thing. Leavers are ideologues, insisting WE MUST LEAVE AT ALL
COSTS. So in some senses this fudge works well – we kinda stay in the EU while
saying we’ve left. Pretty much all the UK gets from Brexit is loss of a voice
around many EU tables, and of course blue passports. Rejoice.
If you want to know whether this should be seen as a gain for the Leave or
Remain camps, watch the next few days & see who gets more furious about it. Rees-Mogg and Farage will be incandescent (never a bad thing imo). There’ll be 100pt
splash headlines about “betrayal” but this time aimed at the Prime Minister.
Expect many an essay/job application from Boris, Gove & others over the
weekend. Aaron Banks has already chipped in with this gem: -
In getting this agreement Theresa May has pretty much made herself useless to the Tory party from now on. She’s achieved as
much as she practically can with this, and the Hard Brexiters won’t want her around for
the next stage because they know under May the deal will come down to agreeing
to whatever the EU demands. So they’ll want her out sharpish and to put one of
their own in Number 10.
Conversely the problem Hard Brexiters have now is that even
when they remove May, a No Deal Brexit is no longer possible – even for the
maddest Hard Brexiter it’s inconceivable that the next stage talks could be
held with any threat to resile from today’s agreement and walk away – the economy
would crash instantly, and no foreign government would negotiate with a UK
prepared to act in such bad faith. So we’re staying with rules & payments
we have, whatever the Hard Brexiters would like.
This may be a move to the next stage of Leaving the EU – but
it’s far from a victory for the Leave camp. Remainers are smiling.
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