An eye-opening announcement appeared in many of today’s news
outlets that after a General Election any Labour majority government plans to negotiate
a Brexit deal representing a closer relationship with Europe and put this to
the vote. But not only would the party not force a united Leave/Remain
campaigning position on its MPs in a 2nd Referendum, the leader
himself suggests he would remain neutral. This brought more howls of seemingly justified
outrage from Labour supporters and/or Remain-minded voters. But in the context of a party
heading for a General Election this may actually prove to be a smart move.
Labour under Jeremy Corbyn have long faced criticism for
their strategic ambiguity over Brexit, initially on whether there should even
be a 2nd referendum, and more recently on how to campaign if we get
one. But that Labour now pledge to try to negotiate a new, closer Brexit
relationship with the EU and put it to the public in a 2nd
referendum should come as no surprise – not at least for anyone observing
months of back-and-forth wrangling between the various wings of Labour that
have slowly steered the leadership towards this position.
Many of the most prominent voices in Labour have been
calling for exactly this, including Emily Thornberry who very publicly and to some
derision said she would campaign for Remain in any future referendum. But
others in the party would definitely take the opposite stance.
A neutral position allows those MPs with strong views to
maintain their position and campaign as they see fit – which they would have
done anyway whatever edict came from Labour HQ - without risking further party
defections. Labour supporters may have called for the party to come off this
fence for some time, but coming down on one side inevitably means cutting off
those on the other side.
Also, since Jo Swinson has firmly taken the reins and the
Lib Dems are now the Party of Revoke, Labour are now the only main party which
can claim to offer a 2nd referendum if they win. This can only help
Labour in some marginal seats.
Consider my home town of Burnley, a strong Labour seat that voted 66% for
Leave in the referendum. Whether it matches her personal beliefs or because she
genuinely feels that she is representing the majority in the town, the town’s
MP Julie Cooper openly supports honouring the 2016 referendum result and
leaving the EU. To campaign on the doorstep for a Labour party vowing to
overturn the referendum would cause not just laughter but no small amount of
anger, and open the way to the real possibility of a Brexit Party MP for
Burnley in the General Election.
Similarly in Labour/Lib Dem marginals in Remain areas, some may shrink
from the idea of revoking Article 50 “on day one” after a General Election
under the basis that for all the known issues, a vote was held and won in 2016
and the result should not be simply discarded. This gives Labour an inroad to
take some potential Lib Dem votes by offering a truly democratic way to remain.
Given that polling shows a hung parliament to be a very real
prospect in the upcoming General Election, this move should also be seen in the
light of the likely Leave-Remain alliances that could be formed. The
Conservatives could still bring the DUP onside with a little help from the
treasury, and whatever Farage’s posturing the simple offer of a cabinet job
would turn the Brexit party into Tory allies in a heartbeat.
Labour however could have a shot at government, while being
short of a majority even with SNP support. Their neutral policy combined with a
manifesto commitment to a 2nd referendum could bring onside the Lib
Dems, who would by that point have to accept that this would be the only possible
path towards their goal. It would be a bitter pill for them to swallow but
history shows us that the Lib Dems are more than prepared to swallow hard when
the ends justify the means. They would also have a say in the UK government’s Brexit
negotiations with the EU, potentially pulling us closer to the position where
many could come to think “If this deal is the best Leave offer, why bother
leaving?”
For Jeremy Corbyn, this does seem like yet more
fence-sitting from a man who must have the most splintered arse in UK politics,
and a dreadful lack of leadership at a crucial time. But the country is almost
certainly facing a new General Election in weeks, and this time the race will
have one more runner than in previous race. It may be a wise move for Labour to
straddle two horses at least until the finish line is crossed.
Mike Holden
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