Corbyn’s neutral stance on a second referendum may be smarter than it appears.

An eye-opening announcement appeared in many of today’s news outlets that after a General Election any Labour majority government plans to negotiate a Brexit deal representing a closer relationship with Europe and put this to the vote. But not only would the party not force a united Leave/Remain campaigning position on its MPs in a 2^nd Referendum, the leader himself suggests he would remain neutral. This brought more howls of seemingly justified outrage from Labour supporters and/or Remain-minded voters. But in the context of a party heading for a General Election this may actually prove to be a smart move.

Labour under Jeremy Corbyn have long faced criticism for their strategic ambiguity over Brexit, initially on whether there should even be a 2^nd referendum, and more recently on how to campaign if we get one. But that Labour now pledge to try to negotiate a new, closer Brexit relationship with the EU and put it to the public in a 2^nd referendum should come as no surprise – not at least for anyone observing months of back-and-forth wrangling between the various wings of Labour that have slowly steered the leadership towards this position.

Many of the most prominent voices in Labour have been calling for exactly this, including Emily Thornberry who very publicly and to some derision said she would campaign for Remain in any future referendum. But others in the party would definitely take the opposite stance.

A neutral position allows those MPs with strong views to maintain their position and campaign as they see fit – which they would have done anyway whatever edict came from Labour HQ - without risking further party defections. Labour supporters may have called for the party to come off this fence for some time, but coming down on one side inevitably means cutting off those on the other side.

Also, since Jo Swinson has firmly taken the reins and the Lib Dems are now the Party of Revoke, Labour are now the only main party which can claim to offer a 2^nd referendum if they win. This can only help Labour in some marginal seats.

Consider my home town of Burnley, a strong Labour seat that voted 66% for Leave in the referendum. Whether it matches her personal beliefs or because she genuinely feels that she is representing the majority in the town, the town’s MP Julie Cooper openly supports honouring the 2016 referendum result and leaving the EU. To campaign on the doorstep for a Labour party vowing to overturn the referendum would cause not just laughter but no small amount of anger, and open the way to the real possibility of a Brexit Party MP for Burnley in the General Election.

Similarly in Labour/Lib Dem marginals in Remain areas, some may shrink from the idea of revoking Article 50 “on day one” after a General Election under the basis that for all the known issues, a vote was held and won in 2016 and the result should not be simply discarded. This gives Labour an inroad to take some potential Lib Dem votes by offering a truly democratic way to remain.

Given that polling shows a hung parliament to be a very real prospect in the upcoming General Election, this move should also be seen in the light of the likely Leave-Remain alliances that could be formed. The Conservatives could still bring the DUP onside with a little help from the treasury, and whatever Farage’s posturing the simple offer of a cabinet job would turn the Brexit party into Tory allies in a heartbeat.

Labour however could have a shot at government, while being short of a majority even with SNP support. Their neutral policy combined with a manifesto commitment to a 2^nd referendum could bring onside the Lib Dems, who would by that point have to accept that this would be the only possible path towards their goal. It would be a bitter pill for them to swallow but history shows us that the Lib Dems are more than prepared to swallow hard when the ends justify the means. They would also have a say in the UK government’s Brexit negotiations with the EU, potentially pulling us closer to the position where many could come to think “If this deal is the best Leave offer, why bother leaving?”

For Jeremy Corbyn, this does seem like yet more fence-sitting from a man who must have the most splintered arse in UK politics, and a dreadful lack of leadership at a crucial time. But the country is almost certainly facing a new General Election in weeks, and this time the race will have one more runner than in previous race. It may be a wise move for Labour to straddle two horses at least until the finish line is crossed.

Mike Holden